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0 Wiley Trading Series beyond candlesticks I Steve Nison beyond technical Analysis, second edition i Tushar Chande contrary opinion I R. Earl Hadady cybernetic trading strategies i Murray A. Ruggiero, Jr. encyclopedia of Chart patterns i Thomas Bulkowski expert Trading systems /John R. Wolberg four steps to Trading success /John F. Clayburg fundamental analysis I Jack Schwager gaming the market I Ronald B. Shelton genetic algorithms and investment Strategies / Richard J. Bauer, Jr. intermarket technical analysis i John J. Murphy long term secrets to short term Trading / Larry Williams macro trading and investment strategies i Gabriel Burstein managed Trading I Jack Schwager McMillan on Options / Lawrence G. McMillan Neural network time series forecasting of financial markets i E. Michael Azoff new market Timing techniques I Thomas R. DeMark new trading dimensions i Bill Williams nonlinear pricing I Christopher T. May option market making /Alan J. Baird option strategies, second edition I Courtney Smith pattern, price & Time / James A. Hyerczyk point and figure charting i Thomas J. Dorsey profits from natural Resources / Roland A. Jansen schwager on futures I Jack Schwager seasonality i Jake Bernstein stock index futures & options i Susan Abbott Cidel study guide for Trading for a living i Dr. Alexander Elder study guide to accompany fundamental analysis i Jack Schwager study guide to accompany technical analysis i Jack Schwager technical analysis /Jack Schwager technical Analysis of the options markets i Richard Hexton technical market indicators i Richard J. Bauer, Jr., and Julie R. Dahlquist the day Traders manual 1 William F. Eng the dynamic option selection system I Howard L. Simons the hedge fund edge I Mark Boucher the intuitive Trader i Robert Koppel the mathematics of money management j Ralph Vince the new market Wizards / Jack Schwager the new money management I Ralph Vince the new options market, fourth edition i Max Ansbacher the new science of technical analysis / Thomas R. DeMark the new Technical trader / Tushar Chande and Stanley S. Kroll the option advisor I Bernie G. SchaeffeX the options course / George A. Fontanills the options course workbook i George A. Fontanills the Traders tax Solution / Ted Tesser the Traders tax survival guide, revised edition i Ted Tesser the Trading Game / Ryan Jones the ultimate Trading guide i John Hill, George Pruitt, Lundy Hill the Visual investor J John J. Murphy Trader vic ii I Victor Sperandeo Trading applications of Japanese candlestick charting I Gary Wagner and Brad Matheny Trading chaos 1 Bill Williams Trading for a living i Dr. Alexander Elder Trading on expectations 1 Brendan Moynihan Trading systems & methods, third edition i Perry Kaufman Trading the plan / Robert Deel Trading to Win I Ari Kiev Trading with crowd psychology i Carl Gyllenram Trading without fear f Richard W. Arms, Jr. FOUR STEPS TO TRADINGSUCCESS Using Everyday Indicators to Achieve Extraordinary Profits JOHN F. CLAYBURG  JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. New York Chichester Weinheim Brisbane Singapore Toronto
10 987654321 For my grandparents Dr. William F. Clayburg 1889-1969 Dora Bellamy Clayburg 1888-1958 John 0. Anderson 1888-1975 Faye C. Anderson 1896-1991 And my parents Frank T. Clayburg 1916-1975 Claribel Clayburg 1915-1992 To my wife, Karen, my best friend since 1964 To our children, Gary, Roger, Kathy, Tom, Michael Also Adam, Amber, Beth, Eric, Ryan, Tom, Trish, & Margie. You guys know why. Copyright © 2001 by John F. Clayburg. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4744. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012, (212) 850-6011, fax (212) 850-6008, E-Mail: PERMREQ@WILEY.COM. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed by trademarks. In all instances where the author or publisher is aware of a claim, the product names appear in Initial Capital letters. Readers, however, should contact the appropriate companies for more complete information regarding trademarks and registration. Library Of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Clayburg, John F. Four steps to trading success : using everyday indicators to achieve extraordinary profits / John F. Clayburg. p. cm.-(Wiley trading) Includes index. ISBN 0-471-41482-4 (cloth: alk. paper) 1. Investment analysis. 2. Stock price forecasting. I. Title. II. Series. HG4529.C55 2001 2001017674 332.632-dc21 Printed in the United States of America
PREFACE A great musician can create a work of art with his/her voice alone, while a poor one couldnt get it right with the most expensive organ and sound mixing equipment. A good carpenter can make a great house from a collection of used, recycled boards. A bad carpenter couldnt erect a decent doghouse with the finest mahogany or walnut construction materials. The same is true of trading. There are no "good" indicators in my opinion, but there are good traders. Good traders can trade well with lousy indicators because they observe. Poor traders trade poorly even with good indicators because they dont. Average traders, and most of us are average, can trade very well with average indicators. Yes, some indicators are better than others in a given scenario, or even in a general sense. But, with considerable effort, most traders can be successful using commonly available trading tools. The indicators that we use in this book certainly arent the most complicated and obviously arent the most expensive. They are actually provided free with most basic charting packages. Good traders can trade well with common indicators such as the ones we will use here. The key is that the intrinsic worth of an indicator is mostly derived from the traders ability to observe and ascertain the behavior of their favorite indicators against all market conditions. Many of the top traders focus entirely on using one or two simple indicators to trade only three or four stocks. Their key to success revolves around the constant, painstaking observation of their trading tools as they interact with their stock of choice. It can take a significant amount of time to become intimately familiar with these chart/indicator relationships. The time needed to master these
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