back start next
[start] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [ 40 ] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90]
40  /t M/IS/f / /l n/tt/ii te/Of/» n/i%a ra/«t/« n/vt/6 W/lf/t iJn/es/e 19/M/ri n/M/» n/«t/t ra/is/f ra/if/c ra/tf/i ES/M/Il »/M/C ES/1«/S ¹/IC/f te/o/i / /11 n/u/t IB/ie/« 18/M/I W/lft/It M/M/l / /4. :/* M/n/f H/lf/I U/I«/fi " : U/M/tl ll/n/L u/ie/s U/Ifl/S K/[f/I U/M/(l u/M/e U/[f/« U/I«/f U/K/l )£/M/I E£/M/« B£/lf/X Si/If/I
On the weekly chart (Illustraticns 6.4 and 6.5), this test cf 49 1/2 came in the 26th week frcm high, cr 10/23/81. Ycu can see that the next tcp in March cf 1984 was, alsc, at fifty percent cf the range frcm the 1981 high tc the 1982 lew. Price was in a weak position on the monthly chart because it was trading below the 2X1 angle down from the high. Continuing with thia price level on the weekly chart, in the week of 3/30/84, price had completed an Elliott five wave move. Price was at fifty percent of The range, was 78 weeks, or 1 1/2 years from low, one half year or 26 weeks from the 9/30/83 high, and 1 1/4 years or 65 weeks from the 1/7/83 high. It was at the top of channel and against reaistance. A aetup worth trading. Another use of fifty percent of range is to help qualify the strength or weakness of a stock or group of stocks. As long as a stock remains above fifty percent of its previous swing range it is in a strong position. If it finds bottom a little above fifty percent of range as the S6P did on 7/27/84, you would consider it in a very atrong poaition. Also, if the markets had been moving down and you felt a corrective move was over, you would look to buy those stocks that were at or above fifty percent of their swing range. You could narrow that selection down aven further by finding those stocks on daily charta which had given rising bottoms as the market was giving flat or lower bottoms. Caterpillar had a low in July, 1970 at $20 per share. So you oan start that count at July, 1975 at 60 months or 5 years. If you carry it on out, 135 months is the month of October, 1981. Also, there was a top in July, 1956, so the 240 month count would be July, 1976, which was 6 yeara from the 1970 low. October, 1984 was 120 months or ten years from a bear market low, or the expiration of a 10 year cycle. Since price moved down hard into that month, you would look for evidenoe of a bear move to end. Now we know that it takes time for accumulation to occur before a move up can take place. The longer the accumulation in time, the better the chance of a auatained movement. During March of 1985, prioe gave a higher bottom, wvhich was, also, a triple bottom matching October and December. March is 60 months from previcua bottom, 84 montha from bottom, 12 months from top, and ths full square of the range from the 1981 high to the 1974 low. Obviously, this was a fine time to look for the trend to turn up.
[start] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [ 40 ] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90]
|
|
Menu
