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60 rs~nrrsrt s 5 5 S S S 18 9 5 I & S < iX i "1 fl 3 I & &
How long will this drive last? First, the normal correction, a 90 day move against a bull trend would be obvious. This is followed by, 120 days (that would put the trend in doubt), 180 days, 270 days, then 315 days (45 less than a full year), and one full year or October of 1984, would be times to look for the down move to end. These would be counted from the high. From the June, 1982 low, two years would be June of 1984. October, 1984 is three years from the October, 1981 low. Five years from the April, 1979 nigh is April, 1984, but the very significant range of movement from the 1979 high to the 1981 low, squares out on the monthly charts in June of 1984. That would be a key time period. Having located June of 1984 as a turning point month, look at the weekly chart and notice the head and shoulders topping pattern from July through December of 1983. The standard technical measurement for a price objective to a head and shoulders pattern is to measure the distance from the high, down to the neckline of the pattern, and then subtract that distance in price from the level of th6 neckline. In this instance, it yields a target prioe of 97 to 98. Of course, to a Gann analyst, the objective is given by the last swing range, which, in this case is 99, for the objective. This 100 percent of the distance from the high to the first low made in the drive down, is subtracted from that low. I have drawn a square of the range on the weekly chart. If you will follow the 45 degree angle down from the high, you will notice that the angle moves at 1 point per week. You will see that when that angle hits the price level of 57 1/2, time has squared the range from where the bull move started. When that angle hits 48 1/2, the full range of the movement is squared. Fifty percent of those same squares of ranges is $91 and $95 in price. If you will look at the week of 6/15/84, which is during the monthly turning point time frame, you will see that the low was exactly on that angle down from top, which is a squaring of price and time on the weekly chart. Gann said that every time price and time were in this fashion, that a change was possible. The only time this crossing of the angle down works with any reasonable accuracy, is when price and time are squared exactly. In this case, the low was exactly on the angle. It is under these circumstances, you can look for change. The exact high must be on the angle up from a low, or the exact low on the angle down from the high. This only applies to 45 degree angles. Besides the objectives of swing ranges, head and shoulders targets, and the monthly turning point, what other reasons were there to look for a bottom in that point in time? One thing to look for is a seven week move into a time frame of change. You will notice that the move into top lasted for seven weeks in October, and the low in mid June shows a similar move down. Price, on the monthly chart, came down to the 2X1 angle from zero, at this same time. Here, is an instance of support being shown on a fast angle, and when this occurs, you can look for a fast move to follow. If bottom is found in this time, it would be above fifty percent of the range and leave the stock in a very strong position.
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