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86 around the 135th month or 11 1/4 year period from any important top or bottom. 5YEAR CYCLE This cycle is very important because it is onehalf of the 10year cycle and 1/4 of the 20year cycle. The smallest compete cycle or workout in a market is 5 years. MINOR CYCLES The minor cycles are 3 years and 6 years. The smallest cycle is one year, which often shows a change in the 10th or 11th month. RULES FOR FUTURE CYCLES Stocks move in 10year cycles, which are worked out in 5year cycles a 5year cycle up and a 5year cycle down. Begin with extreme tops and extreme bottoms to figure all cycles, either major or minor. Rule 1  A bull campaign generally runs 5 years 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2 years up, completing a 5year cycle. The end of a 5year campaign comes in the 59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the 59th month. Rule 2  A bear cycle often runs 5 years down the first move 2 years down, then 1 year up, and 2 years down, completing the 5year downswing. Rule 3  Bull or bear campaigns seldom run more than 3 to 3 1/2 years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction, except at the end of a Major Cycle, like 1869 and 1929. Many campaigns culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full 2 years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd, 24th, 27th or 30th month of the move, or in extreme campaigns in the 34th to 35th or 41st to 42nd month. Rule 4  Adding 10 years to any top, will give you top of the next 10year cycle, repeating about the same average fluctuations. Rule 5  Adding 10 years to any bottom, will give you the bottom of the next 10year cycle, repeating the same kind of a year and the same average fluctuations.
Rule 6  Bear campaigns often run out in 7year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any complete bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle, first add 3 years to get the next bottom: then add 4 years to that bottom to get the bottom of the 7 year cycle. For example: 1914 bottom add 3 years, gives 1917, low of panic; then add 4 years to 1917, gives 1921, low of another depression. Rule 7  To any final major or minor top, add 3 years to get the next top, which will give the third top; add 4 years to the third top to get the final top of a 10year cycle. Sometimes a change in trend from any top occurs before the end of the regular time period, therefore you should begin to watch the 27th, 34th, and 42nd months for a reversal. Rule 8  Adding 5 years to any top, will give the next bottom of a 5year cycle. In order to get the top of the next 5year cycle, add 5 years to any bottom. For example: 1917 was bottom of a big bear campaign; adding 5 years gives 1922, top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say "top of a minor bull campaign?" Because the major bull campaign was due to end in 1929. There was a top in 1919; adding 5 years to 1919 gives 1924 as a bottom of a 5year bear cycle. Refer to Rules 1 and 2, which tell you that a bull or bear campaign seldom runs more that 2 to 3 years in the same direction. The bear campaign from 1919 was 2 years down 1920 and 1921; therefore, we only expect a oneyear rally in 1922; then two years down 1923 and 1924, which completes the 5year bear cycle. Looking back to 1923 and 1914, you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be bear years to complete the 10year cycle from the bottoms of 1913 to 1914. Then, note 1917 bottom of a bear year; adding 7 years gives 1924 also as a bottom of a bear cycle. Then, adding 5 years to 1924 gives 1929 a top of a cycle. FORECASTING MONTHLY MOVES Monthly moves can be determined by the same rules as yearly: Add three months to an important bottom, then add 4, making 7, to get minor bottoms and reaction points. In big upswings a reaction will often not last over two months, the third month being up, the same rule as in yearly cycle 2 down and the third up. In extreme markets, a reaction sometimes only lasts 2 or
3 weeks; then the advance is resumed. In this way a market may continue up to 12 months without breaking a monthly bottom. In a bull market the minor trend may reverse and run down 3 to 4 months, then turn up and follow the main trend again. In a bear market, the minor trend may run up 3 to 4 months, then reverse and follow the main trend, although, as a general rule, stocks never rally more than 2 months in a bear market: then start to break in the third month and follow the main trend down. FORECASTING WEEKLY MOVES The weekly movement gives the next important minor change in trend, which may turn out to be a major change in trend. In a bull market, a stock will often run down 2 to 3 weeks, and possibly 4, then reverse and follow the main trend again. As a rule, the trend will turn up in the middle of the third week and close higher at the end of the third week, the stock only moving 3 weeks against the main trend. In some cases the change in trend will not occur until the fourth week; then the reversal will come and the stook close higher at the end of the forth week. Reverse this rule in a bear market. In rapid markets with big volume, a move will often run 6 to 7 weeks before a minor reversal in trend, and in some cases, like 1929, these fast moves last 13 to 15 weeks or 1/4 of a year. These are culmination moves up or down. As there are 7 days in a week and seven times seven equals 49 days or 7 weeks, this often marks an important turning point. Therefore you should watch for a top or bottom around the 49th to 53nd day, although at times a change will start on the 42nd to 45th day, because a period of 45 days is 1/8 of a year. Also watch for culmination at the end of 90 to 98 days. After a market has declined 7 weeks, it may have 2 or 3 short weeks on the side and then turn up, whioh agrees with the monthly rule for a change in the third month. Always watch the annual trend and consider whether it is in a bull or bear year. In a bull year, with the monthly chart showing up, there are many times that a stock will react 2 or 3 weeks, then rest 3 or 4 weeks, and then go into new territory and advance 6 to 7 weeks more. After a stock makes top and reacts 2 to 3 weeks, it may then have a rally of 2 to 3 weeks without getting above the first top, then hold in a trading range for several weeks without crossing the highest top or breaking the lowest week of that range. In cases of this kind, you can buy near the low point or
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