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2 6.14 Coordination-Failure Models and Real Non-Walrasian Theories 294 6.15 Limitations 300 Problems 302 Chapter? CONSUMPTION 309 7.1 Consumption tmder Certainty: The Life-Cycle/ Permanent-Income Hypothesis 310 7.2 Consumption under Uncertainty: The Random-Walk Hypothesis 316 7.3 Empirical Application: Two Tests of the Random-Walk Hypothesis 319 7.4 The Interest Rate and Saving 323 7.5 Consumption and Risky Assets 328 7.6 Alternative Views of Consumption 332 Problems 341 Chapters INVESTMENT 345 8.1 Investment and the Cost of Capital 345 8.2 A Model of Investment with Adjustment Costs 348 8.3 Tobins q 353 8.4 Analyzing the Model 354 8.5 Implications 358 8.6 The Effects of Uncertainty: An Introduction 364 8.7 Financial-Market Imperfections 369 8.8 Empirical Applications 380 Problems 384 Chapter 9 INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY 388 9.1 Introduction 388 9.2 Inflation, Money Growth, and Interest Rates 389 9.3 Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates 395 9.4 The Dynamic Inconsistency of Low-Inflation Monetary PoUcy 398 9.5 Addressing the Dynamic-Inconsistency Problem 403 9.6 Some Macroeconomic Policy Issues 412 9.7 Seignorage and Inflation 420 9.8 The Costs of Inflation 429 Problems 433
References 494 Name Index 523 Subject Index 528 Chapter 10 UNEMPLOYMENT 439 10.1 Introduction: Theories of Unemployment 439 10.2 A Generic Efflciency-Wage Model 441 10.3 A More General Version 446 10.4 The Shapiro-Stiglitz Model 450 10.5 Implicit Contracts • 461 10.6 Insider-Outsider Models 465 10.7 Hysteresis 469 10.8 Search and Matching Models 473 10.9 Empirical Apphcations 481 Problems 486
EMPIRICAL APPLICATIONS Section 1.7 Growtii Accounting 26 Convergence . 27 Saving and Investment 31 Investment, Population Growth, and Output 32 Section 2.7 Wars and Real Interest Rates 61 Section 2.13 Are Modern Economies Dynamically Efficient? 84 Section 3.7 Population Growth and Technological Change Since 1 Million B.C. 122 Section 3.11 Physical and Human Capital Accumulation and Cross-Country Differences in bicomes 137 Section 4.8 The Persistence of Output Fluctuations 175 Section 4.9 Calibrating a Real-Business-Cycle Model 180 Productivity Movements in the Great Depression 182 Section 5.6 Money and Output 232 Section 6.4 International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs 253 Section 6.13 The Average Inflation Rate and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff 289 Supply Shocks 291 Microeconomic Evidence on Price Adjustment 293 Section 6.14 Experimental Evidence on Coordination-Failure Games 297 Section 7.1 Understanding Estimated Consumption Functions 312 Section 7.3 Campbell and Mankiws Test of the Random-Walk Hypothesis Using Aggregate Data 319 Sheas Test of the Random-Walk Hypothesis Using Household Data 322 Section 7.5 The Equity-Premium Puzzle 330 Section 7.6 Liquidity Constraints and Aggregate Saving 338 Buffer-Stock Saving 339 Section 8.8 The Investment Tax Credit and the Price of Capital Goods 380 Cash Flow and Investment 381 Section 9.3 The Response of the Term Structure to Changes in the Federal Reserves Federal-Funds-Rate Target 396 Section 9.5 Central-Bank Independence and Inflation 409 Section 10.9 Contracting Effects on Employment 481 Interindustry Wage Differences 484 XVll
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