insurance industry, 30, 194, 265, 277,

304, 326, 351,353, 354 Intel, 43, 93, 245, 355, 402 Intelligent Investor, The (Graham),

144-45 interest rates:

analysis of, 56, 79 bonds and, 168, 234, 240 inflation and, 56 trends in, 72, 73, 77, 223 Intemational Monetary Fund, 72, 206 Intemet, 54, 55, 326, 365-68 intrinsic value theory, 101 Intuit, Inc., 335, 367 investment:

academic research on, 24, 34-37, 46,

48, 59, 63, 64, 150 advisory services for, 33, 102, 221-22 aggressive, 294-96 contrarian, see contrarian investment

strategy crisis, see crisis investing fixed-income, 285, 294, 297 long-term, 190-92, 199, 212, 283,

295, 296, 305-15 "margin of safety" in, 49, 172, 275, 295

momentum, 57-59, 101

paradigm shift in, 37-39

revolution in, 285-86

speculation vs., 302, 354, 365, 366, 368-69, 403

strategies for, 40-64

success rate for, 22, 27-28 investors:

competition of, 60

institutional, 84-89, 101, 104-5

optimism vs. pessimism of, 17, 20-21

psychology of, see psychology, investor

small, 31,285,294, 297 Investors Alliance, 203 Iraq-Iran war, 264-65 IRAs, 187,310, 323 Israel, 110-11,227-28

James I, King of England, 316 Janney Montgomery Scott, 105-6 Japan, 72, 207, 208, 240-41, 242, 293, 315, 353

Jensen, Michael, 63, 376, 382, 386, 423n John Hancock Special Equities Fund, 366

Johnson, Lyndon ., 238 Johnson & Johnson, 131

Joumal of Finance, 102, 148, 153 J. R Morgan, 107-8 judgmental heuristics, 215-16 junk bonds, 51, 237, 2435, 257, 297

Kahneman, Daniel, 110-11, 113, 216,

218, 220, 222, 224, 232 Kasparov, Gary, 391, 394 Keane, James R., 45 Keating, Charles, 51 Keefe Bruyettes Index, 183 Kemper-Dreman High Retum Fund, 18,

174, 205, 269 Kennedy, John R, 261 KeyCorp, 132, 183-85, 186 Keynes, John Maynard, 284, 288, 292,

307, 377-78 KGB, 356

Kidder Peabody, 106 King, Martin Luther, Jr., 261 Kipling, Rudyard, 69 Knox, Frank, 68 Kuhn, Thomas, 395, 396 Kwasniewski, Aleksander, 40

labor, 289-90

L&F Rothschild, Underberg, Towbin, 364

laparoscopic surgery, 130-31

large numbers, law of, 222

leading economic indicators, 223

Le Bon, Gustave, 356-57, 361, 362, 365,

370,371 Lee, Robert E., 19 Lehman Brothers, 89, 93 Lemer, Eugene, 221 Lesco-Data Processing, 16 leveraged buy-outs (LBOs), 275 Levis, Mario, 363 Levitt, Arthur, 334-35 light-movement experiment, 360-61 limit orders, 338, 339 Lincoln, Abraham, 358 Lincoln Savings and Loan, 51 Linmer, John, 299, 400-401, 404,

424n

Lipper Analytical Services, 18, 31, 57,

156, 204 Little, I.M.D., 103

Lives ofthe Most Famous English Poets

(Winstanley), 69 L. L. Knickerbocker, 366 London evacuation (1524), 354-55, 356,

Loughran, Tim, 326, 363, 364

Lovallo, Dan, 110 Lucas, Robert, 378, 379 Lufkin, Eric, 98, 119,155, 194,248, 330, 432n

MacBeth, James, 300 McClellan, George, 19 McDonalds, 54

Mackay, Charles, 354-55, 357, 361, 362,

365, 370 McKinley, William, 68 McWilliams, James, 432n Magellan Fund, 384, 402 Malkiel, Burton, 31, 102-3 Malleus Maleficarum-The Witches

Hammer, 316 management, 54, 78, 79, 106, 131, 142,

174,179, 181-82, 183, 199, 266,

267, 269 Manet, Edouard, 70 "margin of safety" principle, 49, 172,

275, 295

market-makers, 326n, 336-37, 402 markets:

administered, 289

competition in, 141-42

share of, 54, 105, 115 market timing, 41-42, 44-45, 47, 56-57, 58, 398

Markowitz, Harry, 35, 297, 399-400,

401,402,404, 424n Marshall, Alfred, 377-78 mathematics, 347, 378, 392 Mavrodi, Sergei, 349, 350 Mayer, Louis ., 69 media, mass, 22, 264-65, 343 Meehl, Paul, 75, 429n Melville, Herman, 69 Memorex, 368 Merck, 194 Mercury Finance, 51 mergers, 332, 385, 390-93 Merrill Lynch, 89, 93, 106 Microsoft, 53, 54-55, 91, 279, 334, 349,

355,403

Midsummer Nights Dream, A (Shakespeare), 70 Milken, Michael, 51,244 Miller, Merton, 35, 327 Miller, Paul, Jr., 143-44 Milton, John, 69 Mirless, James, 379

Mississippi Bubble, 355, 358, 365, 370, 371

, 348-51,355,356

Moby Dick (Melville), 69 modern portfolio theory (MPT), 62-64, 297, 299, 300, 307, 309-10, 352. 374, 375, 395, 399-404, 442 Modigliani, Franco, 35 Monet, Claude, 70 money managers: audits of, 343, 344 commissions of, 31, 57, 61 eamings estimates by, 99-100, 101 expertise of, 31-32,48, 228 performance of, 24, 30-34, 57, 61, 99-100, 101,129,139, 155, 191, 200, 224, 235, 294, 342-44, 382-83, 384,427n portfolio tumover for, 167 probabilities and, 33-34, 113 selling by, 211 money supply, 223, 378 Monroe, Marilyn, 69 Monte Carlo simulation, 188-89 Moore, Amold, 46 Morgan Stanley, 89, 335 Morgan Stanley Index, 206 Morgenstem, Oskar, 46 Momingstar Mutual Fund Survey, 31, 57,

156, 204,207-8, 301-2 mortgages, 268, 305, 352 Mossin, Jan, 299, 400-401, 404, 424n , J. Michael, 299 mutual funds;

aggressive, 221, 302, 341-42, 343, 373

assets of, 30-31 blue chip, 221

closed-end, 205, 206, 207, 209

discounts of, 203, 205

eamings estimates of, 88, 99-100,

101, 102 expense ratio of, 210/1 financial analysis by, 48, 221-22 junk bond, 244, 245 performance of, 24, 59, 61, 156, 221,

382-83, 384 rankings of, 18, 31,156,204-5,

207-8, 301-3 risk assessed by, 62-63 for small capitalization stocks, 63n,

322, 327-29, 333, 339, 343 transaction costs of, 57, 62 volatility of, 297-98, 301-2 Myers, Lawrence, 379

Napoleon I, Emperor of France. 29-30, 39, 238

Nasdaq, 91,166n, 170, 239, 315, 326, 333-39, 344, 363,401,402, 443/1-44/1

National Association of Security Dealers

(N.A.S.D.), 335, 443/1 National Student Marketing, 16, 84-85,

NationsBank, 106

Nature and Conditions of Panic, The

(QuaranteUi), 269 Neff, John, 384

Netscape, 54,118, 365-66, 367, 368, 369 New Contrarian Investment Strategy, The

(Dreman), 17, 85, 91, 99-100, 369 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), 31,

36,91,98,146-49,153,166/1, 170,

209, 318-21, 338, 363, 385-89 New York Times, 45,70, 205, 221, 321,

323/1 NFL, 380-81

Nicholson, Francis, 142-43,144,151,

432/1, 433 Niederhoffer, Victor, 217 Nikkei average, 240, 241 Nippon Telephone, 207 Nixon, Richard M., 114

Oak Technology, 93

Ohio Casualty, 194

oil prices, 219-20, 265, 290, 340, 363

Olson, Ken, 71

opinion, convergence of, 359-61, 370-71 Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries (OPEC), 219, 290 overreaction, investor, 238-57

for "best" vs. "worst" stocks, 246-48,

249, 251-52,254-55 dynamics of, 20-21, 213, 214-15, 237, 238-57, 261-62, 265, 269-71, 276-78

on earning su rises, 245-46, 247, 251 financial ratios and, 248-55 historical analogies for, 238 hypothesis of, 20-21,246-48,253,256 on junk bonds, 243-45, 257 pervasiveness of, 239-43 regression to the mean and, 256-57 rules on, 256-57 timing and, 240-41 Owens-Coming Fiberglass, 106

Paine Webber, 89,105

panics, 22-23,217, 257, 265-66, 267,

269-71,303 Patel, Jay, 104

patents, 68,73,142

pension funds, 30, 31, 53, 63,90,

294-95, 310, 351, 352 Pepys, Samuel, 70 pharmaceutical industry, 20,176-77, 184,194, 272-73, 274,294, 302 Phelan, John, 36 Phelps, E. H., 287 Philbrick, Donna, 96 phlogiston theory, 151,153 Picasso, Pablo, 70, 242 Picture of Dorian Gray, The (Wilde), 67 Pizarro, Francisco, 35, 59 PNC, 266-67 Poincare, Jules Henri, 46 Popper, Karl, 394-95 portfolios, 160-92

active management of, 327

in bear markets, 160, 162,166, 169,

186, 191 "best" vs. "worst" stocks in, 162,

163-64,166,167, 391-92 blue chip, 165-66,170 in bull markets, 166, 186 buy-and-hold strategy for, 162,163, 166-68, 196,197, 201-2, 263-64, 279, 306, 391-92 capital appreciation in, 161,162,164,

166, 169 commissions and, 166, 186 contrarian, 85/i, 160-92 for crisis investing, 263-64, 268-69,

275, 276, 278 diversification of, 60, 85,170,200, 209, 244, 268-69, 275, 276, 278, 352, 403, 434/1 dividends and, 161-62,167-69,173, 176,178,179,181, 183-85,187, 188

eamings growth and, 172,174, 176,

177,181,183, 184,186, 191 eclectic approach to, 171-73, 186 examples of, 174-85 financial position and, 171-73,174,

181-82,183, 185 financial ratios and, 160-69,172,173,

174-85, 189 foreign, 205-10,213 growth, 294-96 indicators for, 171-73, 186 industry, 170,196,197, 199-202, 276 investor psychology and, 169, 191-92,

long-term investment and, 190-92, 305-15