Dangerous Forecasts 69

foreign policy, said in 1941, "Only hysteria entertains the idea that . . . Japan contemplates war upon us."

But lets be fair. The "competence" of military experts goes far beyond the United States. Major George Elliot, a respected writer on military affairs, wrote in May 1939, only months before Germany attacked Poland, that, "although Germany is tremendously stronger in armored divisions . . . Polands superior cavalry is ideally suited to the terrain of Eastern Europe." Polands vaunted cavalry, superb lancers or no, were almost immediately crushed by the German tanks.

Experts have risen to the occasion in many other fields. An 1865 review of Alices Adventures in Wonderland in Childrens Books said of Lewis Carrolls work, "We fancy that any real child might be more puzzled than enchanted by this stiff overwrought story."* The prestigious Saturday Review of London on May 8, 1858, wrote of Charies Dickens, "We do not believe in the permanence of his reputation. . . . Our children will wonder what their ancestors meant by putting Mr. Dickens at the head of the novelists ofhis day." William Winstanley, who compiled the Lives ofthe Most Famous English Poets, wrote in 1687 of John Milton, "His fame is gone out like a candle in a sniff and his memory will always stink."* The Southern Quarterly Review was a little more courtly in its review of Herman Melvilles classic in 1851: "Moby Dick is sad stuff, dull and dreary, or ridiculous. Mr. Melvilles Quakers are the wretchedest dolts and drivellers, and his Mad Captain... is a monstrous bore." Well, to be fair, they were writing about Yankees.

The London Critic wrote in 1855, "Walt Whitman is as unacquainted with art as a hog is with mathematics." But U.S. reviewers gave the Brits as good as they received. "Im sorry Mr. Kipfing, but you just dont know how to use the English language," wrote the editor of the San Francisco Examiner in 1889, informing Kipling that he should not send in further articles. In rejecting the thriller The Day ofthe Jackal in April 1970, a publisher wrote author Frederick Forsyth, "[Your] book has no reader interest." By 1983, uninterested readers had bought 8 million copies.

The experts have proven equally astute in Hollywood. Louis B. Mayer, cofounder of MGM, was told by one ofhis senior executives not to bid for the rights for Gone With the Wind: "Forget it, Louis, no Civil War picture ever made a nickel." Louis replied, "Irving knows whats right." Another expert observed, "Gone With the Wind is going to be the biggest flop in Hollywood history. Im glad it will be Clark Gable falling flat on his face and not Gary Cooper." The observer-Gary Cooper. Marilyn Monroe was told early in her career, "Youd better learn secretarial work, or else get married."° A Universal Studio executive dis-

missed two actors at the same meeting, teUing the first, "You have no talent," and the second, "You have a chip on your tooth, your Adams apple sticks out too far, and you talk too slow."" The first actor was Burt Reynolds and the second was Clint Eastwood, the movies two biggest box-office draws in the 1970s.

Experts have proved as insightful in die other arts. Samuel Pepys, a noted British author, wrote after seeing Shakespeares A Midsummer Nights Dream, "Its the most insipid, ridiculous play I ever saw in my life."2 A theater critic wrote after watching Annie Get Your Gun, "Irving Berlins score is musically not exciting-of the real songs only one or two are tuneful." Annie Get Your Gun was the greatest stage success of Irving Berlins career, with at least eight songs diat were among the top hits of the time. Michael Todd, a major Broadway producer and impresario, told Walter Winchell after seeing a new Broadway show, "No legs, no jokes, no chance." The show was Oklahoma., one of the greatest musicals of all time. The head of the advertising agency in charge of another new Broadway show advised, "I dont think we can do anything with these reviews. Its a disaster. Close it." The producers of Grease decided not to listen to the advice. It was the longest-running show in Broadway history.

Music and painting are not much different. The manager of the Grand Ole Opry told one young singer, "You aint going nowhere . .. son. You ought to go back to drivin a truck." The singer was Elvis Presley.* "We dont like their sound. Groups of guitars are on their way out," said a Decca Recording Company executive in 1962 in turning down the Beatles. "The biggest no-talent I ever worked with," said a senior executive in firing Buddy Holly from the Decca label in 1956.

A review of Impressionist painter Edgar Degas in The New York Times in 1904 said, "Degas is repulsive." Degass masterpieces sell for $10 million and above today. Emile Zola, one of the great French novelists of his day and a leading defender of Impressionist artists, said in 1900 of Paul Cezanne, "Paul may have had the genius of a great painter, but he never had the persistence to become one." Cezannes best works regularly fetch $10 million to $20 million. Edouard Manet, one of the earliest Impressionists, said to Claude Monet of Pierre-Auguste Renoir, "He has no talent at all, that boy. . .. Tell him to please give up painting." Renoir is one of the acknowledged masters of Impressionism, whose maste ieces have sold above $60 milUon. A well-known American art critic said of Picasso in 1934: "[Picassos] prestige is rapidly waning and the custodians of his fame and his pictures are fighting a losing batde to elevate him to a position among the immortals." Picasso painted many of his important works in the next forty years.

Perhaps youre thinking, "But the arts and the military are different from the more scientific areas, like medicine, economics, science, and finance." Are they? Experts seem to make their share of bloopers in these disciplines too. A parliamentary commission in Great Britain set up to investigate the value of the incandescent lightbulb concluded in 1878 that "[Edisons ideas are] good enough for our transatlantic friends... but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men." President Rutherford B. Hayes said in 1876 after participating in a telephone conversation between Washington and Philadelphia, "Thats an amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them?" Alexander Graham Bell patented the telephone in 1876 and tried to sell it to Western Union, but the company was not interested. Lord Kelvin, one of the preeminent British scientists of the nineteenth century said that "Radio has no future.""

A potential initial investor in the Ford Motor Company was told by his banker, "The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty-a fad." The investor bought $5,000 worth of Ford stock anyway and sold his shares several years later for $12.5 million. The editor of the London Daily Express, when told in 1922 that the inventor of television wanted to see him, said, "For Gods sake go down to reception and get rid of the lunatic whos down there. He says hes got a machine for seeing by wireless! Watch him-he may have a razor on him."-

Newer technology seems to have been greeted no better. Thomas J. Watson, the founder of IBM, said in 1943, "I think there is a world market for about five computers." Ken Olson, the founder of Digital Equipment, stated in 1977 just before the PC revolution began, "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home."

Expert opinion in other technical areas: Albert Einstein, whose theory of relativity was instrumental in creating the nuclear bomb, said in 1932, "There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean the atom would have to be shattered at will."* On June 3, 1979, the American Institute of Architects held its annual convention at the Crosby Kemper arena in Kansas City and named it the winner of its coveted AIA honor award for design excellence. The next day the arenas roof collapsed.

Unfortunately, the history of expert predictions in the worid of economics and finance is not much different. Many of us have heard of how wrong the experts were after the 1929 Crash. Bemard Baruch, the most distinguished financier of his time and the advisor to a number of presidents, cabled Winston Churchill in mid-November 1929: "FINANCIAL STORM DEFINITELY PASSED." The prestigious Harvard Economic Society wrote in its weekly letter on November 16, 1929,