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3 10 Contents Part II THE EXPERT WAY TO LOSE YOUR SAVINGS 65 4. Dangerous Forecasts 67 A Portrait of Dorian Guru 68 The Difficulties of Forecasting 73 Predictable Expert Errors 74 The Floor Becomes the Ceiling 75 A Multibillion-Dollar Slip in Investment Theory 76 Security Analysis-A Mission Impossible? 78 How Much Is Too Much? 79 A Surefire Way to Lose Money 84 5. Would You Play a 1 in 50 Billion Shot? 88 The Forecasting Follies 91 Missing the Bam Door 93 Analyst Forecasts in Booms and Busts 97 Was Forecasting in the Past Any Better? 99 What Does It All Mean? 100 Hey, m Special 102 Some Causes of Forecasting Errors 102 Career Pressures and Forecasts 104 Psychological Influences on AnalystsDecisions 107 Mr. Inside and Mn Outside 109 The Forecasters Plague 111 Analyst verconfidence 114 6. Nasty Surprises 117 Paying Through the Nose for Growth 118 The Many Faces of Surprise 119 What the Record Shows 119 Toute la Difference 123 The Effect of Positive Su rises 124 Calling In the Chips 126 Pulling the Trigger 129 Reinforcing Events 132 The Effects of Su rise Over Time 134 A Su rising Opportunity 136
Part III THE WORLD OF CONTRARIAN INVESTING 1 37 7. Contrarian Investment Strategies 139 The World Turned Upside Do wn 140 In Visibility We Trust 141 In the Beginning ... 142 More Nasty, Ugly Little Facts 145 Whatever Took So Long? 149 The Great Discovery 151 The Last Nail 154 Summing it Up 158 8. Boosting Portfolio Profits 160 Strategy #1: Low P/E 160 Strategies #2 and #3: Price-to-Cash Flow and Price-to-Book Value 163 Strategy #4: Price-to-Dividend 167 Contrarian Stock Selection: A-B-C Rules 169 Should We Abandon Security Analysis Entirely? 170 An Eclectic Approach 171 To the Trenches 174 Using the Low P/E Strategy 174 The World of GARP 178 Using Low Price-to-Cash Flow 178 Time for a Miss 181 Price-to-Book Value Strategies 182 Price-to-Dividend 183 A Beneficial Side Effect 186 An Overview of the Eclectic Approach 186 Owning the Casino 186 Walking Away from the Chips 190 9. A New, Powerful Contrarian Approacli 193 Contrarian Strategies Within Industries 194 Why Buy the Cheapest Stocks in an Industry? 198 The Defensive Team: Part II 200 Buy-and-Weed Strategies 201 Where Do I Get My Statistics? 202 What Contrarian Strategies Wont Do for You 204
12 Contents Alternatives to Contrarian Strategies 204 Mutual Funds 204 Closed-End Investment Companies 205 Foreign Country Funds: Myth and Reality 205 When to Sell? 210 10. Knowing Your Market Odds 214 Improving Your Market Odds 215 In Simplification We Believe 215 It Aint Necessarily So 216 The Law of Small Numbers 221 A Variation of the Previous Problem 224 Regression to the Mean 227 If It Looks Good, It Must Taste Good 230 On Shark Attacks and Falling 1 1 Parts 231 Anchoring and Hindsight Biases 233 Decisional Biases and Market Fashions 234 Shortcuts to Disaster 236 11. Profiting from Investor Overreaction 258 The Pervasiveness of Investor Overreaction 239 Junk Bonds: A Money-Making Overreaction 243 Eamings Su rise: Another Profitable Overreaction 245 The Investor Overreaction Hypothesis 246 Is It a Horse? 248 The Dark Side of the Moon 253 Other Voices 256 Regression to the Mean Revisited 256 Part IV INVESTING IN THE 2Century 259 12. Crisis Investing 261 First: Know Your Enemy 261 Symptoms of a Crisis 264 Essentials for Crisis Investing 266 Hedging Your Bets 268 Panic 269 Value Lifelines in a Crisis 271
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