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2 GDntents HOW THIS BOOK CAN BOOST YOUR PROFIT PERFORMANCE......... 9 1. MAXIMIZE YOUR PROFITS .....................................21 Where the Magic Is 21 To Trade or to Invest 22 The Most Dollars in the Least Time 22 How the Trading Interval Affects Profits 23 Adding Magic by Compounding 26 Maintaining 100% Investment 26 Four Steps to Riches 26 2. TIMING IS THE KEY ............................................28 Something New and Unconventional Is Required 29 What Makes Prices Change 30 The Impact of Historical Events 30 The Source of Trends 30 "X" Motivation - and What It Does to Prices 31 How Cyclicality Expresses Itself in the Market 31 The Summation Principle 32 The Commonality Principle 32 The Variation Principle 32 The Nominality Principle 33 The Proportionality Principle 33 The Significance of Cyclicality 35 How to Go About Observational Analysis 36 "Nesting" Envelopes Upward 38 "Nesting" Down 39 Using Expanded or Contracted Data 40 Extracting Cyclic Model Elements 44 Cyclicality in Individual Issues 44 How Synchronization Is Expressed 48 Summing It All Up 48 3. VERIFY YOUR CHART PATTERNS.................................51 Why Trend Lines and Channels Form and Repeat 52 Where Head and Shoulder Patterns Come From 52
About Double Tops and Bottoms 57 The Significance of Triangles 5 7 How to Tell in Advance if a Chart Pattern Will "Fail" 59 Understanding Other Chart Patterns 61 How Cyclicality Gives Meaning to Chart Patterns 61 The Significance of Moving Averages 62 Why Ten- and 30-Week Moving Averages Are Useful 64 How to Plot and interpret a Moving Average Properly 65 How a Moving Average Can Aid Cyclic Analysis 65 Summarizing Chart Patterns 66 4. TIMING YOUR BUYS WITH GRAPHICS............................68 Prediction by Graphics 68 How to Construct Curvilinear Envelopes 69 Prediction of Price Turns Using Envelopes 70 Use This Example as Your Channel Prediction Guide 71 Constructing the Dominant Channel 73 Finding the Outer Envelope 74 Setting Up Price-Turn Predictions 75 The Kind of Results You Can Achieve 76 How to Generate Graphic "Buy" Signals 77 What to Look For 78 Recognizing the "Valid Trend Line" 78 "Edge-Band" Transaction Timing 79 "Mid-Band" Transaction Timing 82 Points to Remember Regarding Graphic "Buy" Signals 85 5. YOUVE MADE SOME MONEY - HOW TO KEEP IT...................86 Use of Logical Cut-Loss Criteria 86 Extension to Trailing "Sell" Signals 88 How to Construct Selling Analogs 90 How to Make and Use Non-Real Time Envelopes 91 Selling Short 93 Selling Rules to Remember 95 6. COMPUTE YOUR WAY TO INCREASED PROFITS.....................97 Why You Need Computational Aids 97 How to Construct and Use Half-Span Moving Averages 97 Other Uses for Half- and Full-Span Moving Averages 108 Now Turn Your Moving Averages Inside Out 109 Use the Inverse Half-Span Average to Improve Your Timing 109 Try the Inverse Average in Other Ways 112 7. HOW TO SELECT AND TRACK TRADING ISSUES ...................114 Alternative Ways of Selecting Investment Vehicles 114 The Total Scanning Concept 115 Making Use of Screening Criteria 116 Selecting Candidates for Volatility 117
Applying Stability Factors 118 A Word of Caution and Emphasis 119 When You Should Use Alternative Scanning Methods 119 Take Advantage of the "Stable" Concept 120 How to Track Your Stable 121 Summing Up Selection and Tracking 122 8. TRADING BY LOGIC INSTEAD OF BY GUESS ....................... 123 The Tools at Your Command 123 The Anatomy of a Trade 124 Determining the "State of the Market" 124 Selecting the Issue 127 The Next Step Is Analysis 127 Forming the Valid Downtrend Line 131 Computing Potential and Risk 131 A Model Transaction 132 A Trading Experiment 135 Prediction of the Averages 138 The Results of Industry Group Predictions 138 Specific Issues Involved 138 Conclusions 139 9. WHY STOCK PRICES CHANGE ................................. 141 How Decision-Making Enters the Picture 142 Understanding Inational Decision Processes 144 What You Should Know About Fundamental Factors 145 How Company-Related Fundamentals Affect Prices 146 The Influence of Broad Environmental Factors 147 Should You Sell in Event of War? 147 What About Cunency Devaluations? 147 How National Crisis Should Affect Your Decisions 149 How the GNP Affects the Market 149 Now Compare Cyclicality vs. History! 151 The Impact of the Fall of France 151 Here is How Long-Range CycUcality Affects the Market 154 Summarizing Price Change Causes 157 10. PITFALLS AND HOW TO AVOID THEM ........................... 158 Why the Unexpected Occurs 159 Recognizing Psychological Barriers 160 Counteracting the Outside Influence 160 Overcomi ng Greed 162 Beat the "Persimmon Effect" 163 The Bugaboo of Time Distortion - and What to Do About It 164 Dealing With "Scale Effect" 165 Combating Emotional Cyclicality 166 In a Nutshell 167
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