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10

The third aile is that the market needs to close beyond the previous big retracement wave. I llustration 4-,S uses a daily OeuischeMark chart as an example. I lie retracement wave IV which la>ted from November of 1990 to ),inuar\ cif 1991 is the latest m;ijc>r i;upport price, .md on M.irr li 8,1991, the market cl(>ses below the retrai ement wave IV, thus effectively reversing the uptrend to a downtrend.

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Because all wave counts start at the beginning of a new trend, it is of the utmost importance to get a good grasp of when and where a new major trend begins in order to properly count symmetry waves. We will use several markets to illustrate trend reversal and the subsequent proper counting of waves (and changing of labels).

Illustration 4-6 uses a daily crude oil chart. On October 23, 1990, this market ends a big retracement which is bigger than previous retracements (see Illustration 4-7). Subsequently, the market rallies for six weeks and fails to make new highs, and after several weeks closes below the big retracement of October 23,1990. Thus, the trend has effectively reversed to the down side. Illustration 4-8 shows the proper new wave count with the downtrend. Wave 1 and II are followed by wave 111, which has subdivided into a (1), (2), (3), (4), (5) wave count, The subsequent short rally (wave IV) balances wave II. Downtrend wave V so far has two sets of symmetrica! waves in it.

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The weekly Swiss Franc chart in Illustration 4-9 comitwes to illustrate trend reversal. In May of 1989, the Swiss Franc bottoms and starts its uptrend until February of 1991. During this period the biggest retracements are wave It and wave IV. Thus, we need a retracement bigger than wave It and IV. The price at which tlie trend wilt reverse is the bottom of wave IV. A few weeks Liter the Swiss Franc starts to tumble and closes below symmetry wave IV. 1 he trend has reversed to the down side (see Illustration 4-10).

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In the next example, we wi II use a weekly sugar chart (II lustration 4-11 A) to illustrate the trend reversal and the subsequent symmetry wave counts. Up until the end of April 1990, the trend is up, and the Symmetry Wave Method is currently counting trend wave tX. Notice how each • previous retracement wave is symmetrical in size, therefore making It easy to identify the proper grouping and labeling.



This market is extremely overrleveloped, and since there rarely are nine or eleven waves, esf)ccially fjf the magnitude of these retracement waves, we can expert trend reversal. During the eighteen-month uptrend, liie largest retracemeiit was 2.74c. This figure is subirar ted from the top, which is at 16.27v (see Illustration 4-11 H). Since it closed below the big rciracement wave 4, the trend reversal is confirmed. Subsequently, the downtrend on the weekly sugar chart has developed into five bigdownf rend waves containing several smaller sets of symmetry waves.



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