back start next[start] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [ 37 ] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] [98] [99] [100] [101] [102] [103] [104] [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] [112] [113] [114] [115] [116] [117] [118] [119] [120] [121] [122] [123] 37 Trading By The Bool< - Part lit CHAPTER 2In this chapter of the Manual I want to explain one way I enter an established trend. It is quite effective and simple and takes a lot of the analysis chores out of my trading. It is based upon the combination of an offset moving average and a Fibonacci ratio.An Established TrendWhat constitutes an established trend? How do you know when one is in effect? Is it possible to recognize one when you see it?My definition of a trend goes a tittle further than the ones you have typically seen in futures trading literature, because I am only interested in a trend once it has become established.The usual definition of a trend is that if you have higher highs and higher lows, then you have an uptrend. Conversely, if you have lower highs and lower lows, you have a downtrend.Thats fine so far, but I want to take it further because Im interested here in defining established trends.I define an established uptrend as being that when you took back at prices, you see that you have been having higher highs and higher lows, following a breakout from a range, or following the breakout from a recognizable tow, even if the low was part of a trading range, AND THERE HAS BEEN AT LEAST ONE RECOGNIZABLE RETRACEMENT OR CONGESTION prior to prices continuing to go up./\ / / \<-/retracementTrading Range \//\ /\ / established/ \ / \ / uptrend/ \ / \ / / \/ \/1 low2 / /ledge congestion/\<-/retracement \ /3\ / \/ \ /\ / 3 \ /\/ low \/ lowTrading Range high\ /\ /\\ / \ / \ \ / \ / \ \/ \/ \established downtrend\ /\ \/<-\retracementII \I high/ \ III\ /\ \/<-\retracementII \I high/\ III/ \ ledge congestion\ / \ \/ \II \An established downtrend is defined as being that when you look back at prices you see that you have been having lower highs and lower lows, following a breakout from a range, or following the breakout from a recognizable high, even if the high was part of a trading range AND THERE HAS BEEN AT LEAST ONE RECOGNIZABLE RETRACEMENT OR CONGESTION prior to prices continuing to go down.DEUTSCHE HARFigure 1 shows the D-Mark. There was a breakout from a high and prices began going down. Then there was a recognizable retracement, followed by an alert gap and a small congestion. All of a sudden it dawns on me that D-Marks are on their way down. Is there a good way to get into the downtrend other than just jumping in?[start] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [ 37 ] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] [98] [99] [100] [101] [102] [103] [104] [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] [112] [113] [114] [115] [116] [117] [118] [119] [120] [121] [122] [123]