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39

77 7706 7649 7592 7535 7478 7421 7364 7307 7250

i anticipate a retracenent to one of the Fibonacci lines.

For Fib line dates - 0517 to 8517

Figure 4 Looking at 5/17, I can see that both the high and the low for this leg down occurred on the same day. The high is at 7411, and the low for this leg is at 7281. It was the one day plunge to this low that caught my attention to the posslbiiities of this trade.

I can now make a calculation for a point at which I might expect a retracement.

7281 + (7411 - 7281) x .618 = 7361

I make a mental note of this price and also write it down on my chart. If prices close no higher than 7361, I will short the Swiss Franc. As prices move lower, I will recalculate this retracement each day.

Hesisiaifice RetraceFtents narket syinj of 7411 to 7281 .382 R = 7338 (dotted) SUISS FRANC

,500 R = 7346 (solid) .618 R = 7361 (dashed)

SyiSS FRANC

7B19

7307

7250

I uant to catch prices uhen they are betueen the HA the .618 retracenent,

D= 0 0=6

C=0 Hf1A=737&

Figure 5 I also note the position of the HMA for tomorrow. It is at 7376, which is above my anticipated retracement. Until the moves below 7376, it will be of no value. Once it does, and if prices begin to move back down, if I can catch this trade anywhere between the anticipated retracement and the 4 x 1 , Ill be happy.

Figures 6,7,8 {next page). During the next 4 days the Franc goes nowhere. It doesnt seem that it is going to make it to a .618 retracement. However, it does reach a .382 retracement. The is getting much closer to the price action. My hope is that I can get filled. As weak as the Swiss appears to be, I think it will go down much more, and I dont want to miss this action.

SUISS FKAHC

D=e5i8 =7297

=731

L=72B6

C=731S HMA =7376

SUISS FRANC

 SUISS FI =7336 tAMC H=733b L=73aQ C=7312 HMA =7349 7819

d-bsze 0=7310

H=731B

L=7294

=73 HMA=7327

Figures 6-8

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