Reserves, 597, 622

Reset accumulative average. 68

Resistance level, 220, 578

in day trading, 428-429

in Ganns system. 366-371

in Jupiter-Satum cycle, 372

and price objeciive. 228-231

and stop-loss, 606 Resistance line, in charting, 217-219 Retesting. 531-533, 537-539 Retracement theories, 294. 295 Retums, 7, l6, 20-22

risk-adjusted, 595 Returns index, 21 Revelation methods, 295 Reversal, 226-227, 256

in Congestion-Phase system, 293

and Elliott Wave Theory 356

and point-and-figure charting, 265-268

3-box, 258

in weekday patterns, 401. 403-404 Reversal days:

in charting, 218

key, 226-227 Reversal patterns, 387, 400, 413-416 Reversal of position, 90-92, 98

in breakout systems, 102 Reversal value, 256, 267, 273

and box size, 275-276 Reverse spread, 316 Reverse soybean crush, 314 Revised (posterior) probability, 28 Risk, 20-21, 221, 424, 587-630

and arbitrage, 307

with bands, 92-96

catastrophic, 21, 598, 606, 623

and chart spikes, 225

and compounding, 619-621

and divergence trades, 157

and diversification, 7, 598-603

and event trading, 338

on individual trades, 603-609

and investment amount, 623-626

and leverage, 596-597

market, 587. 598

measuring, 591-596

and momentum, 132-133

and point-and-figure charting, 263-264

potential, 594

and Relative Strength Index, 134-135 and reverse crush, 3l4 with spreads, 305, 328-329, 332 and stops. 603-608. See also Stop-losses systematic, 587, 598 in trend systems, 102-105 and volatility, 471, 472, 482 Risk-adjusted return, 595

Risk management, 1, 8. 94, 158, 283- 586, 589 Risk preference. 267, 576, 588 Risk of ruin, 596, 6»4-6l7, 623 Robustness, of system, 7, 8, 521, 531, 545

checklist for, 552-554

and comprehensive studies, 533, 534 Rule of Seven, 231-232 Runaway gap, 226 Runaway market, 224

S&P 500, 53. 154. 311,312

and event trading, 341-342

and gap analysis, 398

and unemployment, 342 Sampling, 10-11. 18 SAR, 98, 99, 442, 443

in Swing Index System, 287 SAR initial point (SlP), 98 Sawtooth chart, in cycle analysis, 208, 209 Scaled-down buying. 617 Scaling, 91

in compounding a position, 617

in point-and-figure charting, 273-280 Schabacker, R.W, 294 Schultz volume indicator, 244 Scbieag<er on Futures (Schwager), 4 Scbwe on Futures: Tecbnical Analysis

(Schwager), 2l6, 218, 233 Screen traders, 419 Seasonal adjustment factor, l64 Seasonal Cbarts For Futures Traders (Smith), 169

Seasonal Concepts in Futures Trading (Bernstein), 183 Seasonal filters, 176-183 Seasonal index, 169 Seasonality, 37. 54, 121. 160-188

commodities affected by l6l. 182

Fourier analysis of, 203

and slow trends, 125

and spreads, 324 Second-order (curvilinear) equation, 45

in velocity calculation, 150 Second-order least squares, 46-48 SeUing power (SP), in A/D OsciUator, 140 SeUlrig Pressure, in Demand OsciUator, 243 Sharpc Ratio (SR), 592 Shock bctor, 564 Shotgun testing, 34 Sibbett, James, 243 Sideways market, 220, 461, 595

and Congestion-Phase System. 292-293

in EUion Wve Theory. 354

and good weather, 178

longer-term trends for, 436

versus trending market, 146, 209

Signal line, 128-130. 136 Silver, 213, 332. 582

and seasonality, 160, 161, 181, 182 Simple aesate mdex, 23 SimjAe moving average, 68, 71

in trend sTStcm comparison, 100-118 Single-market trading s}em 7. 524 Skewness. l4, 16-19, 456 Sklarew. Arthur, 231, 232 Slippage, 421-422, 530, 551, 554

in fest maiket, 538-539

and stops, 605 Slope, 126, 127 Slope divergence, 155-156 Smoothing constants, 75. 87, 88

in adaptive techniques, 436-437, 439

m Master mtding Formula, 99

in ParabtJic Time./Price System, 99

in 1 1 exponential smoothing. 97 Software, 3. 5, 555, 556, 558

CompuTrac, 556

lor curvilinear equation, 47

Excel, 5, 8

for linear correlation calculation, 44 for linear regression calculation, 40-41 MatbCad, 512 MetaStock, 3, 5. 555, 558 for multivariate analysis, 52 Quattro, 5, 8. 244

for stock market-eleciion year data, 343 Stq>erCharts, 5

for testing, 503. 504. 506, 512

TradeStation. 3, 8, 419. 555

for trend calculation, 67 Soybean crush, 312, 419 Soybean market, 102, 163

and gap analysis, 398

and seasonality, 172-181 Spectral analysis, 3, ltS>, 203-208. See also MESA Spectral density diagram, 204. 205 fikes:

in trend charting, 218, 224-225 in volume, 238-239 Spread, 305-307, 599 bull, 317

butterfly, 319-320 carrying charge, 322 and computer use, 419 crack, 314-315 gokliilrer, 316-317 intercrop, 317-19 intermarket, 312. 317 intramarket, 317 legging in, 328-329 leverage in, 332-333 limited-risk, 322 pmduci, 312-314

reverse crack. 3l6

technical analysis of 32225

and trend analysis, 325-329

and volatiUty, 329-352 Spread ratio. 330-331 Spreadsheet programs. 2-6, 555

for linear correlation calculation, 44

for linear regre»iion calculation, 40-41

notation for, 8, 16. 67

in portfolio management, 601-603

and slope diverjjence, 155

forirendsystems. 116. ii7

for volume indicators, 244-246 Square-Root Theory 292 Square of Twelve, m Ganns system. 3"0 Squanng of pnce and time, m Ganns system, 367,369

Standard & Poors 500. See S&P 500 Standard deviation, 10, 12, 16, 21, 64

in Bollinger bands, 91

versus frequency distribution, i8-i9

notation for. 8. 16

and price dLstribution, 449

m regression analysis, 45

for stop4oss, 604 Standardization:

infesting, 20.514-515

of trading methods, 20-22 Steidhnayer.J Peter, 458, 460 Steinberg, Jeanette Nofri. 293 Step-forward testing, 519, 521 Step-wchted moving average. 69 "0, 95. 535 Stochastic oscillator. 129. 135-140 Stock Market. Tbe {Teweles. Bradley, and Teweles), 5 Stock market, 4. 22

and bieadth, 241

and Elliott Wave Theory. 353-358

event trading on, 336, 341-342

January effea on, 4l3

indicators for. 240-244

in presidential election years, 343-344

time pattems in, 385

volatility ot 613

and volume, 237-239 Stock Market Correspondence (xiurse. 294 Stock Market Tbeory and Practice {SchabadLerj. 215

Stop and Reverse. See SAR Stop-losses, 8, 219, 471, 603-608

and breakaway gap, 226

with DeMarks sequential,

and momenmm, 132. 133, 144

in MPTDI system, 95. 96

in point-and-figure versus bar charts, 264

widi swing charts, 281, 283

in Triple-Screen method, 467-468

Straddle. See Spread

Strategy testmg software, 40-42, 44, 155

Student/-test, 19-20. 524-525

Study in Wheat Trading, A (Dunnigan), 290

Subcycles, 190

SuperCharts software, 5

Supeirycle, 557-358

Supply, b\,b2.See also Supply and demand Supply and demand, 29-36

and cycle responses, 37, 160

and price leveb, 3, 14, 29 Supply of storage, 36, 160 Support level, 220. 578

in day trading, 428-i29

in Ganns system, 366-371

in Jupiter-Satum c>x!e, 372

and price objective, 228-231

and stop-loss, 606 Support line, in charting, 217-219 Swing breakout:

risk in. 102. 105

in trend system comparison, lOO-l 18 Swing chart, 257, 281-283 Swing filter, 281, 283 Swing highs;1ows. 227, 281-287 Swing Index System, 286-287 Swing trading, 281-290, 525

Four-Week Rule, 288

Livermore system, 283-284

MinorTrend Rule, 287-288

-Day Rule, 289-290

Swing index System, 286-287 Synthetic series, in cycle identification, 194 Systematic risk, 587, 598

Taylor, George IX>uglass, 430

Taylor, Owen, 356

Taylor, Robert Joel, 95

Taylor trading technique, 430-432

Techn«:al adjustment. 94

Tfechnlcal analysis, I-i, 10, 37, 213

and computer use, 555

of spreads, 322-324

and trading intervals, 423 Teclmical Analysis Group (TAG), 556 Tecbnical Arudysis of tbe Futures Markets

(Murphey), 4 Tecbnical Analysis ofStocks & Commodities

magazine, 5 Ibcbnical Analysis of Stock Trends (Edwards

comprehensive studies, 533-546

criteria for, 544-545

crossover system. 536-540. 542-543

and data errors. 55"

failures in. 544

feedback prtKcss in, SIS. 551

Monte Carlo lechnique, 623-624

-day breakout. 540-542

piiint-and-figure. 525-52

and price shocks, 546-54"

for . 521. 552-554

shotgun. 34

standardization of. 20. 514-515

step-forward process in. 519. 521

system companson. 527-530. 545-546

and trading rule.s. 519-520

of trend sysiems. 105-106. 120-123 lestii of significance. 10 Test parameters, 505-506. 509-512. 552

and computer use. 515

selecting. 530. 533 Test range. 523 Ttst results, 51fV5l7. 553

benchmark for, 522

in crossover systems, 543

grid. 511

predictive versus hisioncal, 520-521. 54". 554

scatter diagram (XYPlot), 512, 5l4

standardization 5i4-515

student Mest. 524-525

topobjgkal relief map, 512

validation of. 517-518, 520-525

worst-case, 530-531 Tbeory of Blackjack, The (Griffin), 6l6 Theory of Runs, 293. 555, 565-572, 625

anti-Maningales in, 568-569

application of, 569-571

Martingales in. 567-568, 571-572 Thiel, Charles C. Jr. 259, 275, 534 Thompson, Jesse H., 235 (Three) 3-box reversal, 258, 262, 267, 525 (Three) 3-Day Trading Method. 432 Thrust, 290, 291 Thrust days, in charting, 218 Tick data;

availabUityof; 556

errors in, 557 rick Data, Inc., 506 Ticker-tape trading. 3 Tick volume, 238, 251-252, 422

and Market FacUitation Index, 254-255